Understand the numbers — read the full methodology
How the Threat Index is calculated, what each data source means, satellite analysis methodology, and formal mathematical definitions you can verify independently.
Data Sources
15 active17 stale32 sources
19
/ 100
→ StableYELLOW?Composite Threat Index (0–100)
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
HEIGHTENED
Military Activity · 24 sites
AI analysis of satellite imagery at Russian/Belarusian military bases. HIGH = unusual movement detected.
1 HIGH20 MOD3 LOW
Alabino trainingBaltiysk navalBaranovichi Belarus✈15Brest garrisonBryansk stagingDonskoye missilesGrodno garrisonGusev garrisonKaliningrad Chkalovsk✈12Kamenka 138th MRBKlintsy stagingKronstadt navalLevashovo airbase✈12Luga 6th CAAMachulishchy Belarus✈4Osipovichi storagePskov 76th VDVShaykovka airbase✈12Smolensk airbase✈12Strugi KrasnyeYelnya garrison
3 LOW activity sites
● HIGH · ● MOD · ● LOW · ✈ aircraft · ⊕ satellite+OSINT fusedFull map →
Detected Operations · 30 days?Coordinated information operations detected by analyzing cross-platform signal patterns.
7 activeNarva Republic — social media prank amplified by trusted media into regional…HIGH
injection cascade11 signals2026-03-21
State media selectively frames Finnish hesitation as European unwillingness to…HIGH
hostile framing10 signals2026-03-21western_fatigue
State media amplifies NATO fracture narrative — coordinates Trump criticism…MEDIUM
hostile framing15 signals2026-03-21nato_provocation
State media uses hedging language to question Estonian airspace sovereignty…MEDIUM
hostile framing14 signals2026-03-21
State media frames Polish court extradition as political persecution of Russian…HIGH
hostile framing14 signals2026-03-21hostile_framing
Manufactured outrage over Latvian residency decision — TASS creates reaction…HIGH
outrage chain4 signals2026-03-21
TASS fabricates non-existent NATO commander to legitimize Iraq withdrawal…HIGH
hostile framing3 signals2026-03-21
Widespread Mobile Internet Outages Are Lawful and Needed for Security, Kremlin…RESOLVED
injection cascade6 signals2026-03-21
Пурга: мы не можем принять, что Россия…RESOLVED
injection cascade9 signals2026-03-21
Правительство обсудит отмену…RESOLVED
injection cascade12 signals2026-03-21
876detections?NASA's VIIRS satellite detects heat signatures at known military sites.
FIRMS Thermal · 7 days
Satellite heat detections near Russian military bases
2HIGH zones?GPS jamming disrupts satellite navigation. Russia uses electronic warfare to jam GPS across the Baltic region.
GPS Jamming
Regions where GPS navigation is being disrupted by electronic warfare
620ships tracked?Ships transmit AIS signals with position and identity.
Baltic Maritime · 24h
Vessel activity in the Baltic Sea, including sanctions-evading tankers
3182aircraft?ADS-B transponder data for military and government aircraft.
Military Flights · 24h
Russian military and government aircraft tracked near the Baltics
--Kp index?The Kp index measures geomagnetic disturbance (0-9). When Kp >= 5, solar storms can disrupt GPS.
Space Weather
Geomagnetic activity — high Kp mimics GPS jamming effects
UNAVAILABLE
0outages?Internet outages detected via BGP routing and active probing (IODA).
Polish Internet
Internet connectivity monitoring for Poland
Polish Power Grid?Grid balance = production minus consumption.
Real-time electricity production vs consumption. Deficit = importing power
-207MW deficit
Prod: 646 MWCons: 853 MW
Travel Advisories?Foreign government travel advisories for Poland.
What US, UK, Germany, Finland, and Sweden say about Baltic travel safety
🏳Normal
Active IndicatorsToday's security events relevant to Poland12 normal
| Category | Indicator | Finding | Conf | ↗ |
|---|
Threat Index History
How the overall threat score has changed — higher = more concerning
Signal Volume
How many data points we collected per day, by source type
RSSTelegramAISGPS JamOther
Indicator Breakdown
Daily count of security indicators by severity