Understand the numbers — read the full methodology
How the Threat Index is calculated, what each data source means, satellite analysis methodology, and formal mathematical definitions you can verify independently.
Data Sources
13 active19 stale32 sources
21
/ 100
→ StableYELLOW?Composite Threat Index (0–100)
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
HEIGHTENED
Military Activity · 24 sites
AI analysis of satellite imagery at Russian/Belarusian military bases. HIGH = unusual movement detected.
1 HIGH20 MOD3 LOW
Alabino trainingBaltiysk navalBaranovichi Belarus✈15Brest garrisonBryansk stagingDonskoye missilesGrodno garrisonGusev garrisonKaliningrad Chkalovsk✈12Kamenka 138th MRBKlintsy stagingKronstadt navalLevashovo airbase✈12Luga 6th CAAMachulishchy Belarus✈4Osipovichi storagePskov 76th VDVShaykovka airbase✈12Smolensk airbase✈12Strugi KrasnyeYelnya garrison
3 LOW activity sites
● HIGH · ● MOD · ● LOW · ✈ aircraft · ⊕ satellite+OSINT fusedFull map →
Detected Operations · 30 days?Coordinated information operations detected by analyzing cross-platform signal patterns.
8 recentA coordinated pro-Kremlin narrative campaign pushes false claims of political repression, ethnic tension, and societal collapse in the Baltic states, using forged intelligence and emotive rhetoric. Actors like Alexey Ste…
Pm CriticismRESOLVED
Detected Pm Criticism across rss, youtube. 3 signals from 3 actors including Aleksandr Chaplygin YouTube, ERR RUS, Postimees RUS. Evidence: Cross-outlet amplification: 3 outlets (1 non-legitimate); FIMI keywords: PM/Lead…
A coordinated narrative burst promotes economic instability and government distrust in the Baltic states, linking regional energy prices to geopolitical tensions and alleging state-corporate collusion. The operation is d…
A coordinated narrative burst promotes the idea of systematic repression of Russian speakers in Estonia and Latvia, using claims of deportations, political persecution, and border disruptions. Pushed primarily by pro-Kre…
A coordinated narrative burst pushes heightened threat perceptions in the Baltics, linking local incidents to broader anti-NATO and anti-EU themes. Pro-Russian media outlets and affiliated actors amplify instability narr…
Baltic War Fear Propaganda PushRESOLVED
A coordinated influence operation pushes narratives portraying NATO as a provocateur and stokes fear of nuclear escalation and World War III in the Baltics, aiming to erode public support for EU/NATO membership. Pro-Krem…
Rail Baltica Corruption SmearRESOLVED
A cross-outlet influence campaign amplifies allegations of corruption and mismanagement in the Rail Baltica project, primarily through Russian-language and non-legitimate outlets. The effort, led by Aleksandr Chaplygin a…
Настоящее Время Балтия is pushing a narrative on YouTube focused on media disruption and foreign influence in the Baltics, particularly highlighting the replacement of Russian-language public broadcas…
876detections?NASA's VIIRS satellite detects heat signatures at known military sites.
FIRMS Thermal · 7 days
Satellite heat detections near Russian military bases
6HIGH zones?GPS jamming disrupts satellite navigation. Russia uses electronic warfare to jam GPS across the Baltic region.
GPS Jamming
Regions where GPS navigation is being disrupted by electronic warfare
519ships tracked?Ships transmit AIS signals with position and identity.
Baltic Maritime · 24h
Vessel activity in the Baltic Sea, including sanctions-evading tankers
3419aircraft?ADS-B transponder data for military and government aircraft.
Military Flights · 24h
Russian military and government aircraft tracked near the Baltics
--Kp index?The Kp index measures geomagnetic disturbance (0-9). When Kp >= 5, solar storms can disrupt GPS.
Space Weather
Geomagnetic activity — high Kp mimics GPS jamming effects
UNAVAILABLE
0outages?Internet outages detected via BGP routing and active probing (IODA).
Polish Internet
Internet connectivity monitoring for Poland
Polish Power Grid?Grid balance = production minus consumption.
Real-time electricity production vs consumption. Deficit = importing power
-207MW deficit
Prod: 646 MWCons: 853 MW
Travel Advisories?Foreign government travel advisories for Poland.
What US, UK, Germany, Finland, and Sweden say about Baltic travel safety
🏳Normal
Active IndicatorsToday's security events relevant to Poland12 normal
| Category | Indicator | Finding | Conf | ↗ |
|---|
Threat Index History
How the overall threat score has changed — higher = more concerning
Signal Volume
How many data points we collected per day, by source type
RSSTelegramAISGPS JamOther
Indicator Breakdown
Daily count of security indicators by severity